Neel Shelat looks at a club with a strong legacy of bringing Brazilian talent to Europe and asks whether they should, in fact, be casting their net wider
The pipeline of Brazilian youngsters moving from their homeland to Shakhtar Donetsk before often breaking into the biggest European leagues is right up there with the most well-known player pathways in world football. Former Marseille forward Brandão was the trailblazer as he became the first Brazilian player to join the Miners in 2002 and went on to score 91 goals in 220 outings before moving on to France. Since then, there have been a whole host of success stories, including some players who have gone to play for the most successful clubs in the world.
Shakhtar, for their part, have also benefited greatly from this pathway. The Brazilian arrivals have certainly helped boost the quality of their squads, leading them to win all 15 of their Ukrainian Premier League titles after the turn of the century in addition to a sizeable haul of domestic cups as well as one continental crown in 2009. They have also managed to generate great profits through player trading and record-breaking sales of Brazilian players, thus improving their financial status and firmly establishing themselves as one of the powerhouses of Ukrainian football in the present day.
However, Shakhtar were forced to turn away from this hugely successful pathway in recent years due to circumstances well beyond their control. They seem inclined to making a return now having signed seven Brazilian players in the last two seasons, but amid ever-changing market dynamics, could it be time for them to expand to different markets?
Shakhtar’s excellent track record with Brazilian players
There are a lot of statistics and numbers that illustrate the success Shakhtar Donetsk have had with Brazilian players. No fewer than 43 Brazilians have signed for the club to date, representing the second-biggest foreign nationality among the club’s all-time player pool. They have been by far the most productive, with the most aggregate appearances at 4,391 and the highest goal return of 872. The average of these figures comes to over 100 appearances and 20 goals per player, which is an exceptional return.
Brazilians are similarly massive outliers when it comes to transfers for the Miners. Five of their six most expensive sales are Brazilians, namely Fred, Alex Teixeira, Fernandinho, Willian and Douglas Costa, who went for €214 million altogether. With such successes in terms of sales, it should be unsurprising that all but 2 of their 15 most expensive signings are also Brazilian, though they only cost under €200m in total.
Needless to say, many Brazilians have more than delivered for the club. Luiz Adriano is their all-time top scorer with a return of 128 goals in 266 appearances. He was one of the key contributors in their 2008/09 UEFA Cup win, in which Fernandinho and Jádson were joint top-scorers with four goals each, while Ilsinho and Willian also appeared in every match.
Shakhtar’s current squad includes nine Brazilians – close to twice more than every other foreign nationality combined. Altogether, these players contributed 20 goals and 18 assists in the most recent Ukrainian Premier League season, making up a significant portion of the team’s attacking output.
A forced pause
Shakhtar Donetsk did not make any signings at all in the 2020/21 season as the COVID-19 pandemic shook up the world and with it, of course, the transfer market. They did bring in some players including a few Brazilians in the 2021/22 season, but they did not sign any more Brazilians in the following campaign after the Russian invasion of Ukraine in early 2022.
At the time, FIFA allowed foreign footballers to temporarily break their contracts and move away from either country. As a result, Shakhtar were left with an almost entirely domestic squad in 2022/23 with just four foreigners and one Brazilian. As they have slowly managed to regain some semblance of stability over time, they seem to be heading back to Brazil to shape their new squads. However, global market trends have changed a fair bit in recent years, so the Miners might end up breaking their pick if they do not assess their opportunities accurately.
Increasing competition and prices
For one, it is worth noting that Shakhtar enjoyed the most success with their Brazilian pathway between the late 2000s and early 2010s. That was the period in which they made their best signings from Brazil, including each of the aforementioned five record sales and most of the top scorers. Fred’s €59m move to Manchester United in 2018 was their only successful Brazilian sale between 2016/17 and 2022/23, which seems to suggest that the effectiveness of the pathway was already dwindling before 2020.
That shift might be explained by looking at transfer trends out of Brazil over the years. For starters, the simple volume of transfers out of the top flight indicates a very interesting pattern – fewer foreign clubs were signing players from Brazil during Shakhtar’s successful period on either side of 2010, but that number spiked after 2015 and has grown even further after a COVID-enforced drop.
Even more interestingly, the transfer fees paid to Brazilian clubs over the seasons reinforce this pattern. The spike in the early 2010s did not affect Shakhtar much as it was partly caused by the Chinese Super League boom, while the peak in 2013/14 can be explained by Neymar’s €88m move to Barcelona as well as a €60m investment by the Miners themselves on four players. The subsequent growth was almost entirely driven by increased investment from big five league clubs, which is going even further now.
This trend poses a two-fold challenge for Shakhtar in the Brazilian market. Firstly, there is increased competition for the best talents in the country. This not only drives prices up but also makes it difficult for them to sign the most promising players, who are naturally more attracted to offers from bigger clubs in stronger leagues. Further, with everyone, including the elite Champions League contenders, now regularly recruiting from Brazil, many potential buyers are effectively able to cut the middlemen (which include Shakhtar) and sign Brazilian talents from the source.
As a result, Shakhtar have had to pay higher fees for their recent signings. A simple illustration of this is the fact that they paid over €62m for their last six signings from Brazil, whereas they paid about €37.5m for seven in 2018 and 2019. So, the average transfer fee has nearly doubled from €5.37m to over €10m.
Such an increase would be understandable if they were signing significantly better players, but they are still focusing on fairly unproven youngsters. As the below chart shows, Shakhtar have ended up significantly overpaying for their recent Brazilian signings with respect to their market values.
| Player | Age | Previous Club | Transfermarkt Value At The Time (€m) | Transfer Fee (€m) |
| Kauã Elias | 18 | Fluminense | 9 | 17 |
| Alisson | 19 | Atlético-MG | 4.5 | 14 |
| Marlon Gomes | 20 | Vasco da Gama | 6 | 12 |
| Kevin | 21 | Palmeiras | 4 | 12 |
| Newerton | 18 | São Paulo | N/A | 3.6 |
| Eguinaldo | 18 | Vasco da Gama | 0.9 | 3.5 |
(Shakhtar Donetsk’s signings from Brazilian clubs since 2023/24.)
It is worth noting that such relatively heavy investment is not entirely foreign to Shakhtar. They have done something similar in the past, including in the aforementioned 2013 summer window, as well as in 2007/08. However, they have never consistently invested such large amounts across multiple seasons, so they will be well worth following in the upcoming transfer windows. In the current case, the significant squad rebuild they were forced to undertake could well be an explanation for this spending, but it does come with a higher degree of risk, too.
With all of this being said, the fact that there still is potential to succeed through this pathway must also be acknowledged. Even if Shakhtar Donetsk have to pay higher transfer fees for their Brazilian signings and miss out on some players to bigger clubs, they still always have the opportunity to find underrated gems out of what is a huge player pool in Brazil. Ultimately, just a couple of big sales will likely be enough for them to more than break even from any reasonable investments. For instance, Shakhtar might recoup a significant portion of the €62m they spent on Brazilians in recent windows if Kevin’s rumoured transfer to RB Leipzig goes through, as the potential price being reported is around €40m. While he has shown great potential, this would also represent an overpay on the German side’s part. Leipzig will likely be banking on their ability to develop him further, just as Shakhtar did when they signed him.
Using TransferLab’s new Benchmark module, we can try to forecast how the latest crop of Brazilian Shakhtar players might fare. Kevin would be a great sale at the aforementioned price as he is predicted to peak as an above-average Bundesliga winger. Such a fee would also easily cover for whatever happens with Newerton, who is not forecast to be quite as good (and notably also cost less).
A somewhat similar pattern can also be seen among the strikers, as the more expensive Kauã Elias is projected to do better than Eguinaldo. Another good sale deal for either of them would add up to be about enough for Shakhtar to break even on their last two years of investment on Brazilian players.
Ultimately, Shakhtar Donetsk’s success with the Brazilian pathway will be determined in no small part by their ability to negotiate big sales. That is arguably where they faltered in the mid-to-late 2010s, but if they can once again start striking deals like Kevin’s potential sale to Leipzig, they will have good justification to keep going back to Brazil. On the whole, though, the increasing level of competitiveness in the Brazilian market will lead to increasing risk, which might not be the best option for the Miners in their current circumstances.
Alternative markets
If Shakhtar Donetsk can no longer find as much surety and value in the Brazilian market as they previously did, they might want to look for alternatives. There are various factors, including challenges the club faces as well as the current situation in Ukraine, that will inevitably complicate matters.
From the outside, a seemingly obvious approach might be to simply double down on local talent. The fact that Dynamo Kyiv won the title last season with an almost entirely Ukrainian squad might appear to be a convincing argument, but things are not quite so easy for Shakhtar. They have not played in their true home in Donetsk since war broke out in 2014, and have relocated on multiple occasions since. As a result, the relatively more well-settled Dynamo have an edge over them when it comes to attracting local talent. Already having many more domestic players in their squad also helps the defending champions’ cause.
Instead, Shakhtar Donetsk might want to explore some other foreign markets. There seems to be a gradually growing trend in the Ukrainian Premier League of bringing in players from Western Africa and Eastern Europe. This is encapsulated by the fact that Nigeria and Georgia were tied as the second-most-represented foreign nationalities in the league last season. Clubs like Polissya Zhytomyr, Chornomorets Odesa, LNZ Cherkasy and Kryvbas are turning to those markets, which certainly have a lot of potential bargain signings in them at significantly lower costs.
Cameroonian left back Yvan Dibango is a great example who illustrates the potential in these markets. Kryvbas initially signed him in 2022 on loan from Estonian side FCI Levadia before going on to make his move permanent for €500,000. He has progressed quite well and grown into one of the best full backs in the league, reaching a level that would not make him look bad at all in the German Bundesliga as per TransferLab’s Benchmark module. Other clubs will surely be interested in his services, so Kryvbas should make a significant profit if he moves on this summer.
The aforementioned clubs do not have the same spending capacity as Shakhtar, so they tend to look for more established players rather than taking slightly bigger risks on younger talents. However, there is value to be found with such an approach as well, as LNZ Cherkasy proved with the signing of Muharrem Jashari. The 27-year-old Kosovar midfielder left FC Drita for just €50,000 last year and went on to become one of the best players in his position in the Ukrainian Premier League last season.
Shakhtar are surely aware of these trends and opportunities. In fact, their record appearance-maker is an Eastern European foreigner, namely Darijo Srna, who also happens to be their current director of football. Their current squad includes a couple of players from these regions, including Burkinabé forward Lassina Traoré and Georgian full back Irakli Azarov. They have also signed a few youngsters from smaller South American nations in recent years, among whom are Venezuelan forward Kevin Kelsy and Bolivian defender Diego Arroyo.
Given their stature and track record of young player development, Shakhtar Donetsk certainly have the potential to succeed in alternative markets if they wish to do so. While their familiarity and history with the Brazilian pathway could well lead to some more success, it appears prudent for them to explore alternatives given the context of current market trends.
Header image copyright IMAGO / Pakusch
