Mohamed Mohamed returns with a long read on Crystal Palace, how they played in 2023/24, and what they might look to do in the transfer market
For all intents and purposes, it’s hard to argue that Crystal Palace haven’t been a success story in the Premier League. Since their return to the first division in 2013, they have never finished in the relegation zone and have almost always ended up comfortably above it with a points total in the mid to high 40s. Given that they have not been a mega rich club in terms of wages and revenue, it’s a noteworthy accomplishment.
If there has been a critique of how Crystal Palace have operated over the past few years, it’s a lack of a project put together which had the promise of something grander. Although Roy Hodgson’s track record over several seasons was solid, his game model wasn’t something which could have fans dreaming of a fairytale-esque season. Fans of mid-table clubs like to have hope that if several things go their way, they could flirt with finishing in a European spot like what Brighton experienced in 2022-23. There was never a season where you could say Palace had the chance to achieve that. Add to it that they had the oldest weighted average age in the league in 2020 and 2021, and you could forgive the fanbase for wanting something better.
There’s more hope today for Crystal Palace compared to what was seen previously. The club’s bet on players in the Championship translating well to the first division netted them standout performers in Eberechi Eze, Michael Olise, and Adam Wharton. This helped them add a much-needed infusion of high-end talent. Palace made a noteworthy hire in signing Oliver Glasner to replace Hodgson while they were trying to stave off relegation. Glasner had documented success with Eintracht Frankfurt, the high-water mark being their first appearance in the Champions League since 1960 via winning the 2022 Europa League. The new manager bounce was apparent, as the final 13 games saw Palace accumulate the 4th most points in the league with a +15 goal difference that got them safely into 10th place. Using the Sporting Index points market, they ended up overachieving by 6 points compared to the beginning of the season, on the higher end of exceeding expectations.
This summer window will be pivotal for where Crystal Palace are heading as a club for the short and medium-term. Eze, Olise, and Marc Guéhi have all been linked with moves away, and so far, Olise has officially signed with Bayern Munich. That has curbed some of the initial excitement from a squad building perspective compared to where things were in late May, but it shouldn’t necessarily be a death sentence if contingency plans are drawn up. Before getting into possible recruitment targets, it’s important to have a quick overview on how they played under Glasner and just how good they were.
How did they Play?
Given the late season hiring of Glasner, it might be more instructive to look at the admittedly limited sample towards the tail-end of the season. In particular, there was a difference out of possession. Under the Austrian manager, Palace became somewhat more aggressive in hunting for high turnovers, a change from what was seen under Hodgson when they were one of the more passive sides defensively. According to data from @markrstats, They were above average in high turnovers created after the managerial change, and closer to middle of the pack in buildup disruption. Via Understat’s passes per defensive action, Palace were 16th through February 23rd at 14.25. That jumped slightly to 14th for the remaining 13 matches at 12.86. Again, not a massive difference, but it was one.
In Palace’s 5-2-3 under Glasner out of possession, the front three would be very narrow to help deny ground passes towards the midfield. If passes did get through, the double pivot would step up to deny time on the ball. A common thing to see from Palace was the full backs stepping up in an asymmetric manner, which explains why Tyrick Mitchell and Daniel Muñoz rank very highly in defensive action output. At times, the wide center-backs would also step up if the front five were stretched out by the opponent during buildup. That could be as the result of the opposition in early phase stationing their center-backs in wider than normal positions to reduce the compact nature of the forward line. This can lead to confusion on pressing responsibilities.
In their own half, Palace usually retreated to a 5-4-1 with similar principles concerning the midfield two trying to eliminate space, and the wingbacks having license to step out of the defensive line to be aggressive. The defensive line would still be high enough to help squeeze the pitch and maintain compactness. Opponents who were good at dragging the midfield pivot by overflooding the central area can force Palace’s block into compromising scenarios with the wide central defenders having to put out fires. Depending on the opponent, Palace could ramp up the aggression following a turnover. Will Hughes had an impressive engine to chase opponents, while Wharton was great at spreading his stance after closing down over the first few yards (@thatgooner did a terrific article on Wharton’s skillset which I’d highly suggest reading).
Creating those high turnovers helped fuel Palace’s transition opportunities. The close proximity of the front 3 allowed for quick hitting chances and a growing synergy in the limited time Olise, Eze, and Jean-Philippe Mateta were on the pitch together. Jean-Philippe Mateta is valuable as a striker who can be utilized as an outlet for long balls to help bring teammates into play. Muñoz was a revelation himself as an all-action wingback who provided a variety of off-ball runs during different phases of play. That helps both Olise and Eze, who regularly attract 2-3 opponents on the ball while carrying into the final third, which creates openings for others.
Arguably the hardest thing for managers taking over during the season is implementing coherent in-possession principles. It’s something which can take lots of time before the players and fans start to see the fruits of their labor. Under Jurgen Klopp, Liverpool took considerable time before they truly found their footing. Similar things could be said about Arsenal with Mikel Arteta as their manager.
This is to say that under Glasner, Palace are very much still in the beginning phases of figuring out what their tent poles are with the ball. You saw the glimpses of Wharton using his techniques as a receiver to quicken tempo, or interchanges of position between Mateta and Eze/Olise. A lot like during transitions, going long to Mateta to bypass the midfield was also an option from goal kicks. In the final third, they were heavily reliant on overlapping runs from the wingbacks. Even still, Palace were at their best against a non-set defense.
How Good Were They?
Last season was unique in that the promoted sides from the Championship in Luton Town, Burnley, and Sheffield United were arguably the weakest trio in the Premier League era. The combined points tally of those three clubs were the lowest seen at 66, 10 fewer than the previous record of 76 from Cardiff City, Fulham, and Huddersfield in 2018-19. PL clubs in the 10-17th range talent wise had more room for error than usual since there was less of a threat. The unique situations of Luton Town and Sheffield United certainly played a part in them being overmatched, even though the former did put up a great showing. The financial gap between the top two divisions in English football is such that it could become more common to see all three promoted sides get relegated straight away.
As such, one could argue that even at their absolute nadir last season when they were only five points above 18th place through 25 matches, Crystal Palace weren’t in truly dire straits. With that said, some of their performance indicators showed them devolving to a level not seen in quite a long time. In a different season, it wouldn’t have been hard to imagine them in the relegation zone.
| Hodsgon + Paddy McCarthy (25 matches) | Glasner (13 matches) | |
| Goal difference per game | 16th | 3rd |
| Points per game | 17th | 4th |
| Deep completions differential per game | 14th | 7th |
| Non-penalty xG difference per game | 16th | 5th |
Certainly, injuries played a part in why Palace performed as badly as they did. Cheick Doucouré missed most of the season with a severe Achilles injury, and Olise was plagued by hamstring problems. Olise’s injuries were particularly impactful given how much their attack flowed through him. Public information available on injuries in the Premier League had Crystal Palace in the top half across a variety of metrics, which indicates that they experienced some bad luck. It shouldn’t entirely let the club off the hook for what happened, but for a club with not a ton of quality depth in talent, losing a couple of key contributors for extended periods of time is tough.
As can be seen in the table, those statistical benchmarks improved considerably to levels commonly associated with clubs who are competing for a top 4-6 spot. Obviously, the sample size is very small at only 13 matches. In addition to Olise’s return, clubs are potentially more likely to switch off and play at a different level towards the end of the season due to fatigue and other factors. This isn’t to say that their performance was outright fluky, but even if the club had returned everyone from last year, it’s very tough to ask them to play like the 4th-6th best team in England over a 38-game season.
Key Player: Michael Olise
There are a multitude of ways to show Michael Olise’s importance to Crystal Palace when he was healthy. His combined 16 goals and assists had him ranked 22nd in the league despite playing less than 1300 league minutes. His non-penalty goals and assists per 90 rate was the best in the league, with the expected goal contribution per 90 in the top 10. Add to it that Palace played a lot better with him on the pitch vs off, and you get one of the best per minute performers in the PL.
Olise is an expert in utilizing tempo as a dribbler. He can blend multiple stepovers into a quick change of pace in wider areas. In the channels, he can be incredibly shifty with a big bag of tricks. Those flashes of skill aren’t just for show, but are used functionally to create space for himself. For a lack of a better descriptor, it just feels like he glides across the pitch when in possession and covers considerable ground with this stride length during solo runs. Unsurprisingly, this makes him a magnet to draw fouls into the final third.
Olise has been one of the better creators in the PL since his move from the Championship, and 23-24 was his best season in this department. Some of it for sure was due to having more license to play as an inside forward. That helps open more passing angles vs constantly having to create near the touchline. He’s brave as a chance creator, constantly willing to look for opportunities into the box. This can involve him finding different ways to angle his pass, including using the outside of his boot and little chip passes over the top like a sand wedge in golf. Combine that with his dynamism off the dribble, and you get someone who can create ample opportunities from very little.
Given that Olise is a ball-to-feet kind of attacker, it’s unsurprising that his own individual shot numbers are not amazing for an attacker, as evidenced by the graphic below showing his shooting tendencies. A non-penalty expected goals per shot of 0.08 was in the 21st percentile, according to FBref. A fair amount of the shots that Olise generates are from him creating his own shot off the dribble rather than receiving passes in behind.
Olise’s departure means Palace lose one of the PL’s most dynamic on-ball creators, which is no small loss for a club of their size relative to the top half of the league. Expecting to find someone who’ll immediately replicate his value is a tough ask, but they’ve had experience replacing creative high usage wingers in the past from having Wilfried Zaha.
Crystal Palace’s squad as it stands is in an interesting place. Although their weighted average age was on the older side, it was around the middle of the pack. Eze, Wharton, Guehi and to a lesser extent Tyrick Mitchell make up an interesting core of English talents. They’re likely in a position where they can take a couple of more gambles at finding high-end prospects, and the club has shown a willingness to provide a pathway to regular minutes for youngsters. We’ve seen examples like Brighton who have largely done well with their recruitment because a route to regular first team minutes was possible from U23 players worldwide. The following section includes two possible targets to add to their squad.
Potential Recruitments
Matías Soulé – 21 years old (Juventus)
Finding a prospect who turns out to be as good as what Olise showed to be in his three seasons with Crystal Palace is about as good as it gets for them. The ingenuity and creativity made him one of the most exciting talents in the league, and his production (especially in 2023-24) led to several mega clubs trying to sign him. Given how much Palace seemed to fall off the pace whenever he was out of the lineup, it’d be helpful to find someone who could replicate some of his value now that he’s gone.
Matías Soulé is someone who might be able to fulfill that role. In his age 20 season, he was an impactful player in Serie A. Among qualified players, he was in the top 40 for goals and assists per 90 according to FBref, and tied for 20th in total goals and assists for a Frosinone side which ended up getting relegated. Those are pretty good numbers, although it comes with the acknowledgement that his performances slowed down considerably in the 2nd half of the season. Advanced metrics like DAVIES, an all-in-one metric which tries to quantify a player’s value through event data, had him just inside the top 50 among Serie A players who logged at least 855 minutes last season.
The creativity shown by Soulé as a passer is what stands out upon watching him. He has a vast repertoire of passes you’d want from a high-end playmaker. Whether it be defensive splitting throughballs or little chipped passes into certain areas in the final third, he’s got one of the better touches you’ll find from a playmaker in Europe. More times than not, his teammates don’t have to break stride with their movement. He’s particularly proficient with leading his teammates onto passes in the wide area of the box. These deliveries can end up becoming secondary assists that don’t get logged in the goals and assists tally for players, but have immense value in their own right.
Off the ball, Soulé is something of a mixed bag. A lot of his value in this department isn’t necessarily from attempting runs in behind. Rather, he’ll try to drag defenders out of position when dropping deep and creating space for others with these movements. These are things which I discussed in a video I made concerning Soulé’s skillset and impact in late 2023.
Meet Matías Soulé: The Prospect Who’s Taken Serie A by Storm
Serie A players have not had the greatest track record succeeding in England, and there are athleticism concerns with the Argentine. It’s possible he doesn’t have the explosiveness needed to amplify his creative talents. With how narrow the attackers under Glasner operate in, that may help alleviate a bit of those issues. He’d be more likely to play in pockets of space in the interior and combine with teammates rather than be tasked with solely being a wide creator who must rely on his first step.
In the past, clubs who have lost a star have tried to recreate the value in the aggregate, which has not always worked out. On the negative side, there is the famous example of Liverpool failing horrendously to replace Luis Suarez in 2014. A counter would be Napoli losing Fabián Ruiz and Kalidou Koulibaly in the summer of 2022 and not only surviving but thriving in 2022-23 through shrewd signings like Khvicha Kvaratskhelia. Soulé would be unique in that he’d be closer to betting on finding a one-to-one replacement for Olise given the reported figures that have been touted for his transfer fee. Signing Soulé would be an aggressive gamble, but one which could pay off.
Lucien Agoumé – 22 years old (Inter)
In general, betting on prospects during their teenage years who performed at an above average level or better in Ligue 1 has been a decent transfer policy. You can find numerous examples of this phenomenon over the years, with a recent example being Pape Matar Sarr at Tottenham. His performances at Metz during his age 17 and 18 seasons made him a high upside target, and now he’s part of Spurs’ core going forward.
More than anything, that might be the sales pitch for Lucien Agoumé as a future high-end contributor to a good side, after performing admirably for Brest in 2021-22. In comparison, the past two seasons have been more stop and start as he’s played in less than 2000 league minutes combined in France and Spain, even with the promise he showed.
In possession, Agoumé is technically proficient. Although not someone who’ll evade multiple opponents in a single run, he’s got enough agility to quickly bypass one while facing forward before making a quick pass. He airs more on the safe side with his ground passes, but can contribute the occasional incisive pass. His long passes tend to have good weighting on them, which was especially the case while playing in Ligue 1 and could help a club like Palace who want to play in transitions. It felt like he was not quite as smooth at getting the ball out of his feet against pressure during his time with Sevilla compared to when he was in France. As well, he could be better at subtly moving into open areas within the middle third to help connect possession chains, but perhaps that can be improved with more experience and different coaching.
Defensively, Agoumé certainly has the athleticism needed to box in the opponent high up the pitch, especially after a heavy touch. He’s got the size to cover ground quickly, and that size helps him with utilizing a wide stance to block or intercept passes. His frame also affords him the ability to poke the ball away with a standing tackle. He showed moments of expertly playing the role as a single pivot out of possession, although there were also certainly the occasional lapses, particularly losing his marker nearby from blindside runs.
Agoumé is by no means a flawless prospect, including uncertainty on his ability to turn away from pressure as a receiver, which is quite important in the PL. Even still, finding young quality depth on the cheap is essential. Given Doucouré is returning from a torn Achilles and the enforcement of the Premier League’s Profit and Sustainability Rules, clubs are trying to be more efficient on the margins. With reportedly only one year left on his contract, acquiring Agoume from Inter could be a low risk move with relatively high upside.
Alternate targets: Junior Mwanga, Kamory Doumbia, Jocelyn Janneh, Yaser Asprilla, Antonio Nusa, Dilane Bakwa
Conclusion
Despite the departure of Michael Olise, you could forgive Crystal Palace fans for feeling a bit of optimism going into 2024-25. There’s still a fascinating young core highlighted by Wharton and Guehi, in addition to a potential peak age star in Eze to soften the blow of Olise’s departure (although Eze also has a reported release clause of his own). Oliver Glasner will have a full training camp to further implement his ideas. There’s also the possibility of additional acquisitions to be made in the summer transfer window.
Those who are skeptical of Palace’s outlook for 2024-25 can point to a few things. For one, it is fair to acknowledge that the incoming promoted sides in Leicester City, Southampton, and Ipswich Town will likely be stronger than the trio from last season. There’ll be less room for error at that end of the table. No longer having a floor-raiser of Olise’s caliber is a noteworthy loss, and perhaps more exits are on the way. It’s also tough to tell just how much could be taken away from that impressive stretch of play following the hiring of Glasner given it happened late in the season.
Being a Premier League side outside of the big six is a tough existence because all it takes for you to sink is a few bad moves in succession. There is so much money in the league now even compared to 10 years ago that it’s not hard to get tempted into reckless spending. Crystal Palace have done a good job in recent years of avoiding major blunders through calculated bets, including hiring a manager in Glasner with an interesting game model. They could continue to be selective in going for lower risk transfers, or lean a bit more towards going big-game hunting for a highly sought-after prospect.
For perhaps the first time since their promotion to the Premier League, Crystal Palace are a fascinating club with a project that has the potential to go places in the coming years. If they play their cards right, the final 13 games of the 2023-24 can be successfully built upon for a fun and relatively stress-free 2024-25 campaign where the aim is finishing comfortably above relegation. Attempting to qualify for Europe next season would’ve been a big ask even if everyone returned, so talk of that is a bit premature. With that said, it’s not out of the possibility that with some more successful transfers and other factors going their way, this current project could have Crystal Palace quality for European football in a few year’s time.
Headr image copyright IMAGO / Sebastian Frej
